How skill works at PLLAY

Your skill score is your historical prediction accuracy expressed as a decimal between 0.0 and 1.0. We compute it like this:

1. Look at your last 20 predictions on this specific creator.
2. If you have at least 5 of those, your accuracy on that creator is your skill score.
3. If you have fewer than 5, we fall back to your global accuracy across all creators.
4. If you have no prediction history at all, you start at the baseline 50% (1.00× multiplier).

Your accuracy maps to one of five tier multipliers: Rookie (0.90×, <40% accuracy), Predictor (1.00×, 40–55%), Sharp (1.10×, 55–65%), Analyst (1.25×, 65–75%), and Expert (1.40×, 75%+ with at least 10 predictions). The Expert tier's prediction-count requirement prevents lucky-streak abuse.

Three concrete features:

• Skill weights every payout. Two participants with identical stakes on the winning side don't receive identical payouts — the more accurate predictor earns up to 1.55× more (1.40 ÷ 0.90) on the same contest entry. The platform literally cannot operate without your skill score because it determines what you win.
• Outcomes are determined by real-world events (live game results, stream events, in-game milestones) that PLLAY does not control. The operator has no house edge or RNG.
• Skill is teachable and demonstrable. Your accuracy improves as you learn the games and creators you predict on. Every settlement updates your tier; your stats are visible in your profile and audit-logged.

In the PLLAY app, open Your Prediction Skill Stats on your profile. You'll see your global tier, your accuracy on each creator you've predicted on, and the multiplier each tier earns. Every payout you receive is also logged with the multiplier applied — view your full audit trail under Transactions.

Every settled prediction writes a row to a private audit table (skill_score_audit): your accuracy at settlement time, the prediction count it was based on, the source (per-creator or global), the multiplier applied, and the version of the multiplier table in effect. This is the evidence we use to demonstrate that skill — not chance — determines outcomes.

No. PLLAY is a skill-based contest; like any skill-based competition, results depend on your performance against other participants. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Your skill score can go down as well as up, and even an Expert-tier predictor will lose individual contests.

Each prediction has a pool. After settlement, the pool splits 60/25/15: 60% to winning fans (allocated by stake × skill multiplier), 25% to the creator as their performance bonus, and 15% to PLLAY as the platform fee. PayPal and Paysafe processing fees are pass-through and never absorbed by PLLAY.